The global economic outlook from 2024 to 2027 remains uncertain due to turmoil in the financial sector, inflation levels, and the conflict in Ukraine. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicted a slowdown in global growth, with a decline from 3.4% in 2022 to 2.8% in 2023, and further minimal growth in 2024. Global inflation is expected to decrease from 8.7% to 7.0%, but core inflation is unlikely to return to the target level before 2025.
In such an environment, the global solar market is expected to reach a significant milestone of 400 GW in 2024, representing a 17% increase compared to the expected 341 GW in 2023. Between 2024 and 2027, the leading solar markets — China, the United States, and India — will account for 51-57% of global solar energy demand, down from 58% in 2023.
China is expected to lead the solar market, with installations reaching 161 GW in 2024 and a projected increase to 211 GW by 2027. China’s strategy aims to increase renewable energy production by 50% by 2025. The plan is for the share of electricity consumption from renewable sources to reach 33% by 2025, up from 28.8% in 2020, with the majority of additional energy consumption coming from renewables.
In the case of the United States, it will continue expanding solar energy, driven by the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and the extension of the investment tax credit until 2032. Projections indicate an increase from 42.1 GW in 2024 to 63.5 GW by 2027. Even in the worst-case scenario, growth is expected to reach 41.3 GW, with a possible increase to 85.7 GW in the most optimistic scenario.
Projections of Solar Market Growth by Scenarios
TOP 20 Markets for New PV Solar Panel Installations 2023-2027
Source: https://www.solarpowereurope.org/insights/outlooks/global-market-outlook-for-solar-power-2023-2027/
According to the medium scenario, the 20 leading solar energy markets are expected to each install at least 10 GW between 2023 and 2027. This marks an increase from the previous year when only 17 markets were expected to reach this threshold. The range of new capacity varies significantly, from 873 GW in China to 12 GW in Saudi Arabia, indicating different levels of market growth and investment.
While the list of the top 20 solar energy markets remains largely unchanged from the previous year, there is one notable replacement: the United Kingdom has re-entered the list at 19th position, replacing Vietnam, which was previously ranked 16th. To qualify for the top 20 markets, countries now need to have a capacity of at least 12 GW, compared to 8 GW in the previous year.
In the high scenario, China is expected to install an impressive 1,008 GW, surpassing the 1 TW level. In the medium scenario, China will install more capacity than the next 16 countries combined and more than three times what the United States is expected to install during the same period. Collectively, the top 20 markets are expected to connect 1.8 TW to the grid, accounting for 83% of the total projected capacity. This represents a significant increase from previous estimates, reflecting the growing commitment to solar energy.
Even in the low scenario, the top 20 markets are expected to add 1.5 TW, while in the high scenario, they are projected to exceed the 2 TW level, reaching 2.2 TW by 2027. These projections underscore the robust growth of the solar energy market, driven by increasing political and economic incentives.
Countries are under increasing pressure to address the climate crisis as extreme weather events become more frequent and impact a larger portion of the population worldwide. The goal of the G7 alliance members to achieve 1 TW of solar energy is a political acknowledgment of the crucial role that solar energy plays in reducing global emissions. Solar energy is seen not only as a tool to combat climate change but also as a means to create local jobs and ensure energy security.
The forecast for the 20 leading solar energy markets is predominantly positive, with only three countries facing potential challenges, and all but one expected to have double-digit annual growth rates. This optimistic outlook reflects the recognition of solar energy’s potential and highlights the increasing investments in this sector
Development of the Solar Energy Market in Serbia
Solar power plants had a total of 20 MW (0.02 GW) just two years ago. This year, for the first time, the capacity has exceeded 100 MW (0.1 GW), and by the end of the year, it is expected to reach around 150 MW (0.15 GW).
The Ministry of Mining and Energy states that Serbia is in the process of drafting and adopting strategic documents that will determine the direction and pace of changes in the energy sector during the energy transition. The goals are defined through the Integrated National Energy and Climate Plan until 2030 (which also includes projections up to 2050) and the new Energy Development Strategy until 2040 (which also contains projections up to 2050).
The Integrated Plan represents the first strategic document that comprehensively addresses both energy and climate issues in a unified manner, and both strategic documents have been submitted for adoption. The goals integrated through these documents include a significant increase in energy efficiency, increasing the share of renewable energy sources in electricity production to 45%, and reducing harmful gas emissions by 40.4% compared to 1990. Projections for the solar energy market in the near future, both in Serbia and globally, highlight significant growth. The political and environmental implications of this growth are profound, offering a promising path towards reducing global emissions and improving energy security. As countries continue to invest in solar energy, the future of global energy markets is becoming increasingly brighter.